UK Economy Records No Growth in April: A Setback for Rishi Sunak’s Election Campaign
The UK economy recorded no growth in April, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s hopes of revitalizing the Conservative Party’s faltering election campaign. Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday revealed that the gross domestic product (GDP) was flat for the month, following a 0.4 percent growth in March.
Economic Context
The flat GDP in April follows an estimated 0.6 percent growth in the first quarter of 2024, which had helped pull the UK out of a minor recession experienced at the end of the previous year. This stagnant growth figure emerges just over a week before the release of new inflation data and a forthcoming decision by the Bank of England on interest rates.
Prime Minister Sunak has emphasized economic growth as a key component of his general election strategy. He has previously expressed optimism about the UK’s economic trajectory, stating in March that 2024 would mark the year the economy rebounds after a downturn in 2023. However, the latest figures challenge this narrative and could undermine the government’s economic credibility.
Political Reactions
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt acknowledged the need for continued efforts but remained optimistic, stating, “There is more to do, but the economy is turning a corner and inflation is back down to normal.” Conversely, Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves criticized the lack of growth, arguing that “Rishi Sunak claims we have turned a corner, but the economy has stalled and there is no growth. These figures expose the damage done after 14 years of Conservative chaos.”
Economic Analysis
Economists had anticipated flat GDP growth for April, citing weaker-than-usual sales during the Easter period. Earlier indicators suggested that wet weather negatively impacted retail and construction output significantly. On a quarterly basis, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7 percent in the three months leading up to April, compared to the three months ending in January 2024.
Paul Nowak, TUC General Secretary, commented on the situation, “Our economy is slowing yet again. This has been the worst government for growth in modern times – and working people have paid the price. Real wages are still worth less than 2008. Unemployment is rising at the fastest rate in the G7. And economic inactivity is at record levels.”
Paul Dales, UK chief economist at Capital Economics, noted that while the stagnation in GDP is not a positive sign, it does not signify an end to economic recovery. However, he acknowledged that it poses challenges for the Prime Minister, especially with an election on the horizon. Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at asset management giant abrdn, emphasized the volatility of monthly GDP data, suggesting that a broader analysis over several months indicates a trend of recovery from last year’s recession. He projected that this recovery should continue as households benefit from stronger real income growth amid falling inflation.
Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, pointed out that despite the disappointing GDP figures, an interest rate cut in June seems unlikely. The Bank of England may be cautious about altering policy during an election campaign.
Conclusion
The stagnant economic growth in April presents a significant challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party as they prepare for the upcoming general election. While there are signs of recovery from last year’s recession, the lack of growth in April raises concerns about the robustness of the economic rebound and the impact of long-term Conservative policies on the UK economy.